Cellulase by Design
Contents

Design of experiments for Aspergillus awamori cellulase

A statistical optimization study of solid-state fermentation on agricultural waste: screening 11 variables, building a response surface, converting waste into sugar, and testing the enzyme on cotton.

11 → 2variables screened by Plackett–Burman design in 12 runs
4.86×cellulase yield, 1.85 to 9.00 U/mL, after CCD optimization
0.9878R² of the CCD model (adjusted 0.9792, predicted 0.9136)
3.44×pea-peel saccharification, 98.33 to 338.18 mg/mL reducing sugar

Section 1 · Abstract

From a statistical design to a working enzyme

Background. Cellulases are expensive to make, and the cost of the enzyme is one of the main barriers to turning agricultural residue into sugars, fuels and textile finishes. Solid-state fermentation (SSF) of lignocellulosic waste is a low-cost route, but yield depends on many interacting process variables.

Methods. This study follows a sequential design-of-experiments strategy for SSF of Aspergillus awamori MK788209. A 12-run Plackett–Burman design (PBD) screened 11 variables. The two dominant variables, molokhia stem weight and incubation time, were carried into a 13-run rotatable central composite design (CCD) with a full quadratic response surface. A second three-factor CCD optimized saccharification of pea peels with the crude enzyme. Model quality was judged by ANOVA, R², adjusted R², predicted R² and residual diagnostics.

Results. Substrate weight (F = 99.5) and incubation time (F = 55.2) were the only variables beyond the Bonferroni limit in screening, lifting cellulase to 4.64 U/mL (2.51×). The CCD model (R² = 0.9878, adjusted 0.9792, predicted 0.9136) reached 9.00 U/mL, a 4.86-fold gain over the unoptimized condition, and showed a large substrate × time interaction that reverses the effect of incubation time depending on substrate loading. Pea peels were the best saccharification substrate (98.33 mg/mL), and CCD optimization raised the reported yield 3.44-fold to 338.18 mg/mL. The crude enzyme also biopolished, desized and improved the dyeability of cotton.

Conclusion. A small number of well-chosen experiments is enough to turn waste into a useful enzyme and then into sugar. This page also rebuilds the published models live from their design tables, so every coefficient, p-value and surface can be inspected and challenged.

About the data. The wet-lab dataset, figures and tables in sections 6 to 9 come from the open-access article cited as [1] (Microbial Cell Factories 23:11, 2024) and are credited where they appear. The statistics shown here were recomputed from the published design tables (section 12), the interpretation and critical appraisal in section 11 are written for this study, and section 10 presents the project's own survey of five statistical modelling methods, summarized on the poster.

Section 2 · Background and rationale

Why waste, why fungi, why designed experiments

Lignocellulose is abundant and under-used

Crop residues are made of cellulose, hemicellulose and lignin, typically in the ranges of 35 to 50%, 20 to 35% and 10 to 25% of dry mass. Cellulose is a linear polymer of β-1,4-linked glucose. Disposal by burning or dumping is an environmental problem, yet the same material is a sugar source and a growth substrate for enzyme-producing microbes [10].

The cellulase system

Cellulose is broken down by three cooperating activities. Endoglucanases (EC 3.2.1.4) cut internal β-1,4 bonds. Cellobiohydrolases (EC 3.2.1.91) work from chain ends and release cellobiose. β-Glucosidases (EC 3.2.1.21) convert cellobiose to glucose. The carboxymethyl-cellulose (CMC) assay used in this study reports mainly endoglucanase activity, so "cellulase activity" in the results is CMCase activity [7].

Solid-state fermentation

In SSF the fungus grows on a moist solid with little or no free water [11]. Filamentous fungi suit this environment because hyphae penetrate the substrate, and the waste serves as carbon source, inducer and support at once. The costs are heat and mass transfer, heterogeneity, and difficulty scaling, which is why the process variables need careful optimization.

Why design the experiments

Changing one factor at a time is slow and blind to interactions. A designed experiment varies all factors together according to a pattern that lets every effect be estimated independently, with far fewer runs.

Experimental economy of the designs used
QuestionBrute-force approachDesign used hereWhat it buys
Which of 11 two-level variables matter?211 = 2,048 runs (full factorial)12 runs (Plackett–Burman)Unbiased main effects, orthogonal estimates
Curvature and interaction for 2 factors5 × 5 = 25 runs (five-level grid)13 runs (rotatable CCD, 5 centre points)Full quadratic surface, interaction term, pure-error df
Does the effect of time depend on substrate?Not estimable one factor at a timeInteraction term A×BA sign reversal of the time effect, quantified in section 7

Section 3 · Study design

A sequential strategy, one question per stage

Each stage answers a narrower question than the one before and hands its result to the next. This is the classical screen, then optimize logic of response-surface methodology [3,5].

Stage 1
Substrate screening

Seven agricultural wastes compared for cellulase titre. Molokhia stem is the best.

7 substrates
Stage 2
Plackett–Burman

Eleven nutrient and process variables screened. Two survive the Bonferroni limit.

11 factors · 12 runs
Stage 3
Central composite

Quadratic response surface for substrate weight and incubation time.

2 factors · 13 runs
Stage 4
Saccharification

Pea peels hydrolyzed by the crude enzyme, then optimized with a second CCD.

3 factors
Stage 5
Textile trials

Biopolishing, desizing and dyeability tested on cotton twill and satin.

Application

Cumulative gain in cellulase titre

The baseline of about 1.85 U/mL is derived from the reported fold changes (4.64 ÷ 2.51 and 9.00 ÷ 4.86 both give 1.85). Each stage added a measurable gain, and the CCD roughly doubled what screening alone had achieved.

3690 Cellulase activity (U/mL) 1.85Unoptimized4.64After PBD2.51× vs baseline9.00After CCD4.86× vs baseline

Section 4 · Materials and methods

Strain, substrate, fermentation and assays

Substrates

Agricultural wastes were collected, cleaned, dried, ground and sieved. The screening figure reports rice straw (RS), onion peel (OP), lemon peel (LP), corn cob (CC), molokhia stem (MS, Corchorus olitorius), pea peel (PP) and one further waste labelled AL in the source.

Strain

Aspergillus awamori was isolated from pea peels on potato dextrose agar at 32 °C and identified by 18S rRNA gene sequencing (GenBank accession MK788209). Purity was checked by re-streaking and the culture was kept on PDA slants.

Solid-state fermentation

Each 250 mL flask held 2 g of dried substrate and 10 mL of distilled water, was autoclaved at 121 °C for 20 min, and was inoculated with 1 mL of a 5 × 107 spores/mL suspension from a 5-day-old culture. Flasks were incubated statically at 32 ± 2 °C. Enzyme was extracted by shaking with water and centrifuging.

Enzyme assays

Cellulase was assayed with 1% CMC in 0.05 M acetate buffer (pH 5.0) for 30 min at 50 °C, and the reducing sugar released was measured by the Somogyi method [8,9]. Xylanase, laccase, pectinase and amylase were assayed in the same study. One unit is the amount of enzyme releasing 1 µmol of glucose per minute.

(1)Activity (U/mL) = glucose released (µmol)reaction time (min) × enzyme volume (mL)

Section 5 · Statistical framework

The mathematics behind each design

This section defines every quantity that later tables and plots report, so each number can be traced to a formula.

5.1 Coded variables

Factors are centred and scaled so that the low and high levels sit at −1 and +1. Coding makes coefficients comparable across factors measured in different units and keeps the model matrix well conditioned.

(2)xi = (ξi − ξi,0) / Δξi

5.2 Plackett–Burman screening

A Plackett–Burman design is a two-level orthogonal array with N = 12 runs that can estimate up to N − 1 = 11 main effects [2]. Each effect is the difference between the mean response at the high and low levels. Its standard error depends only on the error variance and N, so every factor is tested with the same precision.

(3)Ej = ȳj+ − ȳj−    SE(Ej) = 2σ̂ / √N    tj = Ej / SE(Ej)

The Pareto chart ranks |t| and draws two reference lines. The t-value limit is the two-sided critical value t1−α/2, ν. The Bonferroni limit divides α by the number of simultaneous tests m = 11, giving t1−α/2m, ν, which controls the family-wise error rate. Effects above the Bonferroni line are very likely real, those between the lines are possibly real, and those below are indistinguishable from noise.

Resolution III

In the 12-run design each two-factor interaction is partially aliased (with coefficient ±1/3) with every main effect it does not contain. Screening results therefore assume interactions are small. That assumption is tested in the CCD, where the A×B interaction turns out to be the largest term in the model.

5.3 Central composite design and the quadratic model

A CCD augments a two-level factorial with axial (star) points at ±α and replicated centre points [3,4]. For k = 2 factors there are 22 = 4 factorial points, 2k = 4 axial points and n0 centre points. Choosing α = (2k)1/4 = √2 ≈ 1.414 makes the design rotatable, meaning prediction variance depends only on distance from the centre. With n0 = 5 the study has N = 13 runs, and the replicated centre points provide an estimate of pure error.

(4)y = β0 + Σ βixi + Σ βiixi2 + Σi<j βijxixj + ε
(5)β̂ = (XTX)−1XTy    Var(β̂) = σ̂2(XTX)−1

5.4 ANOVA and fit statistics

Total variation splits into regression and residual parts, and the residual splits again into lack of fit and pure error when replicates exist. Three R² variants guard against over-fitting: plain R² never falls when terms are added, adjusted R² penalizes terms, and predicted R² uses leave-one-out residuals (PRESS) to measure how well the model predicts runs it has not seen. Adjusted and predicted R² should agree within about 0.2.

(6)SST = SSR + SSE    F = [SSR/(p−1)] / [SSE/(n−p)]
(7)R2 = 1 − SSE/SST    R2adj = 1 − [SSE/(n−p)] / [SST/(n−1)]    R2pred = 1 − PRESS/SST
(8)PRESS = Σ [ ei / (1 − hii) ]2    hii = xiT(XTX)−1xi

n = runs, p = model parameters, ei = residual, hii = leverage. Adequate precision compares the range of fitted values with their average standard error, and values above 4 indicate a usable signal-to-noise ratio.

5.5 Canonical analysis of the surface

Writing the fitted surface as ŷ = b0 + xTb + xTBx, the stationary point is where the gradient vanishes. The signs of the eigenvalues of B classify it: all negative is a maximum, all positive a minimum, mixed signs a saddle, where no interior optimum exists [5].

(9)xs = −½ B−1b    ŷs = b0 + ½ xsTb

Section 6 · Screening

Which substrate, and which variables matter?

6.1 Choosing the substrate

Cellulase production on each waste was compared before any optimization. Molokhia stem gave the highest titre, followed by AL, pea peel, rice straw, corn cob, lemon peel and onion peel. Molokhia stem was therefore used as the SSF substrate for all later optimization, while pea peel, the source of the fungus, became the substrate for the saccharification study.

Bar chart of cellulase activity in U/mL for seven agricultural wastes. Molokhia stem (MS) is highest at about 2.0; onion peel (OP) is lowest at about 0.5.
Figure 1. Cellulase activity on seven agricultural wastes (mean ± SD). RS rice straw, OP onion peel, LP lemon peel, CC corn cob, MS molokhia stem, PP pea peel, AL as labelled in the source. Redrawn from the chart in [1]; the bar heights are digitised and so approximate to about ±0.02 U/mL.
Show the original chart from the source article
Original bar chart from the source article

6.2 Plackett–Burman screening of 11 variables

Eleven variables were varied at two levels in 12 runs: substrate weight, incubation time, glucose, lactose, baker's yeast, peptone, ammonium sulfate, copper sulfate, iron sulfate, calcium chloride and potassium chloride. The panel below recomputes the analysis from the design table. Change the terms kept in the model to see how the error estimate, the limits and the p-values respond.

Interactive Plackett–Burman analysis

12 runs · 11 factors · live OLS
Terms in model

Pareto chart of |t| for each effect

Hover or focus a bar to read its effect, t-value and p-value.
Effects, ranked by |t| (error estimated from the selected model)
FactorLowHighEffect (U/mL)Direction|t|pVerdict
ANOVA for the selected model
SourceSum of squaresdfMean squareFp
Design matrix and responses (12 runs)

Design matrix and responses from Table 1 of [1]. Factor levels: A 2/4 g per flask, B 4/7 days, C and D 0/10 g/L, E, F and G 0/1 g/L, H, J, K and L 0/0.01 g/L.

Reading the result

Substrate weight (A) and incubation time (B) are the only effects above the Bonferroni limit, and both are positive. Peptone (F) has a negative effect that clears the lower t-value limit narrowly but not the Bonferroni limit, and baker's yeast (E, also negative) falls just short of the lower limit. Both are suggestive rather than conclusive. Everything else is indistinguishable from noise at this sample size.

The best run (trial 12, 4 g substrate, 7 days) reached 4.64 U/mL. Because A and B were the only unambiguous drivers and the nutrient additions added little, the remaining variables could be held constant and the optimization effort concentrated on two factors.

How far to trust a saturated screen

With 12 runs and an 8-parameter model, only 4 degrees of freedom remain for error. The p-values for the two big effects are small enough to survive that, but the error estimate is itself uncertain, and choosing which terms to keep after looking at the data makes the reduced-model p-values optimistic. A Lenth pseudo-standard-error analysis [19] is a common alternative that avoids relying on a residual estimate at all.

Compare with the original Pareto chart from the source article
Original Pareto chart of effects with Bonferroni limit 5.74651 and t-value limit 2.77645
Figure 2. Pareto chart as published in [1]. The recomputed chart above reproduces the same t-values (A 9.98, B 7.43) and the same two limits (5.7465 and 2.7764).

Section 7 · Response surface optimization

The cellulase response surface

The two factors identified by screening, molokhia stem weight (A, 4 to 8 g per flask at the ±1 levels) and incubation time (B, 7 to 12 days), were studied in a 13-run rotatable CCD. The panel below fits the quadratic model of equation (4) to the published responses. Drag the surface to rotate it, move the sliders to predict, and switch terms off to see what each one contributes.

Interactive response surface

13 runs · 2 factors · live OLS
Model terms
3.17 g (−α)8.83 g (+α)
5.96 d (−α)13.03 d (+α)

3-D response surface · drag to rotate

Contour map with design points

Open circles are the 13 design points (centre points overlap). The cross marks the slider position. The shaded ring on the contour map is the rotatable design region (radius √2 in coded units); predictions outside it are extrapolation.

7.1 The interaction changes the sign of the time effect

The coefficient of A×B (+1.34) is the largest in the model, larger than either main effect. Its consequence is easy to read from the interaction plot: at 4 g of substrate, longer incubation lowers the yield, while at 8 g it raises it. A one-factor-at-a-time study that tested time at a single substrate loading would have reached opposite conclusions depending on where it happened to start.

Interaction plot at the fitted model

7.2 Model coefficients and ANOVA

Coefficients in coded units (recomputed)
TermCoefficientStd. error95% CI low95% CI hightp
Analysis of variance (recomputed)
SourceSum of squaresdfMean squareFp

The actual-unit equation is the coded model with xA = (g − 6)/2 and xB = (days − 9.5)/2.5 substituted and expanded, for use on the bench.

7.3 Canonical analysis: a saddle, and an optimum on the edge

7.4 Diagnostics

Three plots check the assumptions behind the inference. Points near the 45° line in the parity plot show the model reproduces the data. Residuals against fitted values should form a shapeless band, and studentized residuals should follow the normal reference line.

Predicted vs actual

Residuals vs predicted

Normal plot of studentized residuals

7.5 The design table

Design points and responses from Table 3 of [1]. The "published" column is the model prediction printed in that table. Run 2 prints B as 9.9 d in the source, but its coded level is 0 (9.5 d) and the published equation is reproduced only with the coded value, so the coded value is used here.

Contour plot of predicted cellulase activity against substrate weight and incubation time with the 13 design points, and a predicted versus observed plot.
Figure 3. Fitted quadratic model recomputed from the 13 runs of Table 3 of [1]. (A) Predicted cellulase activity; white dots are the design points and the dashed circle is the rotatable design region (α = 1.414). (B) Predicted against observed activity with the 1:1 line.
Compare with the original Design-Expert plots from the source article
Original Design-Expert contour plot of CMCase activity against substrate weight and incubation time, and parity plot
Contour plot (A) and predicted-versus-actual plot (B) as published in [1].

7.6 In-silico comparison of experimental strategies

Method. The fitted surface f(x) of section 7.2 is taken as the true response. A strategy spends a budget of N flasks, each returning y = f(x) + ε with ε ~ N(0, (kσ̂)2), where σ̂ = U/mL is the residual standard error of the CCD fit and k is a noise multiplier. The strategy then recommends a setting x̂ inside the square 4 to 8 g by 7 to 12 d, and performance is the relative yield S = f(x̂) / max f. Following good practice for simulation studies [25], each contest is repeated R = 500 times from a fixed random seed and summarized by the mean with a 95% Monte Carlo interval, the spread, and the probability of reaching 95% of the optimum.

  • One factor at a time (OFAT). Half the flasks vary substrate at a held time, the best level is fixed, and the other half vary time.
  • Full grid. ⌊√N⌋ levels per factor at the centre of equal cells, as a practical grid would be laid out. The best observed flask is recommended.
  • CCD plus model. Four factorial, four axial and N − 8 centre flasks. A quadratic model is fitted by least squares and its predicted maximum is recommended.

Strategy simulator

Monte Carlo · R = 500 · seeded
940
0.54
Show one run of

One simulated experiment on the true surface

Relative yield S over 500 repeats

Mean relative yield against flask budget (150 repeats per point, same noise and seed)

Figure 5. Top left, a single simulated experiment: dots are flasks, the orange ring is the recommendation, the white diamond is the best achievable setting. Top right and table, the distribution of S over 500 repeats. Bottom, the effect of budget. The CI column is the 95% Monte Carlo interval of the mean, ±1.96 SD/√R.

Reading the result. One factor at a time depends on where it starts. Because the substrate × time interaction reverses the effect of time, holding time at 7 days sends the search into the low-low corner, a good but lower region, whatever the budget. The grid spends flasks evenly and never tests the edge of the region where the best yield sits, so it improves only slowly with budget. The designed experiment places every flask where it helps estimate the whole surface and then reads the optimum from the model, which is why it leads at small budgets. Its advantage is robust to noise over the range offered: at four times the CCD residual error it still reaches about 99% of the optimum while the other two stay between 84% and 88%. Part of that robustness belongs to this surface, whose best setting is a corner fixed by a strong interaction term, so a flatter surface with an interior optimum would be a harder test. These are properties of the fitted surface and are shown as a demonstration of the principle, not as a new laboratory result.

7.7 Sequential search by hand, benchmarked

Task. Find the highest cellulase yield in 10 flasks. Each flask returns f(x) + ε with ε ~ N(0, σ̂2) from the fitted surface, and the surface stays hidden until you finish or reveal it. When the game ends, the page benchmarks your best observed yield against 400 simulated random-search players and 400 simulated designed experiments (a 10-flask CCD), and reports what a quadratic model fitted to your own flasks would have recommended.

Flask game

10 flasks · hidden surface · benchmarked
3.17 g8.83 g
5.96 d13.03 d
Click the map to place the next flask.

Flasks placed (colour = measured yield)

Lab notebook

Place your first flask.

Table 1 (generated at game end). The random-search benchmark places 10 flasks uniformly over the full slider range. The designed benchmark is a 10-flask CCD (four factorial, four axial, two centre flasks). Both report the best observed yield, the same quantity you are scored on. Settings beyond the explored square are model extrapolation, and a high score there would need confirmation in the laboratory.

7.8 Multi-objective trade-off analysis

Method. Three objectives are evaluated on the fitted surface over the square 4 to 8 g by 7 to 12 d: titre f, speed f/B (U/mL per day) and substrate efficiency f/A (U/mL per gram). Each is min-max normalized to [0, 1] across the square, and settings are ranked by the weighted sum S = Σ wk zk with Σ wk = 1, the simplest scalarization of a multi-objective problem [24]. The Pareto set contains every setting that no other setting beats on all three objectives at once. Derringer–Suich desirability functions [20] are the usual alternative when targets or tolerances are known.

Objective explorer

weighted-sum scalarization · Pareto set
Presets

Weighted score S over the design square

Objective space: titre against speed

Figure 6. Left, weighted score over the square; ◇ peak corner (8 g, 12 d), □ fast alternative (4 g, 7 d), ring the optimum for the chosen weights. Right, every setting on a 0.05-coded-unit grid in objective space; blue points are Pareto-optimal over all three objectives (the plot shows two of them), grey points are dominated, and the ring marks the chosen optimum. Prediction intervals in the table are 95% intervals for a new flask from the CCD model.

Interpretation. The Pareto set is a thin ridge, not a cloud: improving speed or efficiency from the peak corner necessarily costs titre. The weighted-sum optimum is not a smooth function of the weights. It stays at the peak corner while titre carries enough weight and then jumps to the low-low corner at a critical weight, reported above for your current speed-to-efficiency ratio. Weighted sums can only reach Pareto points on the convex part of the front, so a compromise setting can be missed even when it is attractive. The weights encode priorities that the study did not measure, such as substrate price, reactor time and the value of a unit of enzyme, so the output is a decision aid and not an economic result.

7.9 Design your own experiment

Purpose. The designs above were fixed by the original study. This generator builds the run sheet for your own experiment: a central composite, Box–Behnken, two-level full factorial or 12-run Plackett–Burman design, with your factor names and ranges, a seeded random run order, and a CSV you can fill in at the bench and analyse with the models in this section.

Run-sheet generator

CCD · Box–Behnken · factorial · Plackett–Burman
CSV text (select and copy if the buttons are blocked)

Table 2. Run sheet for the chosen design. Coded units run from −1 (low) to +1 (high); a rotatable CCD adds axial runs at ±α beyond that range, so check the axial settings are physically possible before you start. The “Response” column is left empty for your measurements.

Reading the diagnostics. A quadratic model in k factors has (k+1)(k+2)/2 parameters; the error degrees of freedom are runs minus that number, and centre-point replicates supply the pure-error part used in the lack-of-fit test. Box–Behnken designs never place a run at a corner of the cube, which helps when the extreme combinations are unsafe or infeasible, at the price of not being able to extend a factorial sequentially.

7.10 How large an effect could 12 runs find? Power and detectable effect

Purpose. “Not significant” in a screening design is only informative if the design could have seen an effect of that size. For a two-level design with N runs the standard error of an effect is SE = 2σ/√N, and the test statistic t = E/SE is compared with the critical value t1−α/2,ν. If the true effect is δ, t follows a non-central t distribution with non-centrality λ = δ/SE, so power = P(|T′| > c) with T′ = (Z + λ)/√(V/ν), Z ~ N(0,1) and V ~ χ2ν. The panel evaluates this integral numerically in your browser and finds the smallest effect reached with 80% power.

Power and minimum detectable effect

non-central t · Plackett–Burman effects
0.051.5 U/mL
120
Presets

Power against true effect size

Figure 7. Solid curve, Bonferroni-adjusted test over all screened factors (α/(N−1)); dashed, unadjusted test. Vertical marks are the estimated effects of the study (A, B, F, E); the 80% line crosses each curve at that test’s minimum detectable effect. The table gives the power the test would have had if the true effect equalled the estimate. That “observed power” is only a restatement of the p-value, so read it as a way to see the design’s resolution and not as evidence about the effect itself. σ defaults to the residual standard error of the 7-term screening model.

Interpretation. With the Bonferroni limit, 12 runs reliably detect only effects above roughly a fifth of the best titre, so the two large effects (A and B) are far inside the detectable range while peptone and baker’s yeast are not: if they were real at the size estimated, the test would have missed them most of the time. The honest reading of “not significant” for the nutrient additions is therefore “not shown to matter at this resolution”. Doubling the runs shrinks the detectable effect by roughly √2 through the standard error and a little more through the extra error degrees of freedom, which lower the critical value.

7.11 Analyse your own central composite design

Purpose. Everything above is computed live from the published data, and the same engine will analyse yours. Paste or upload a CSV with three columns (factor A, factor B, response) in natural units, one run per row. The panel fits the full quadratic model of equation (4), reports the ANOVA-level statistics, classifies the stationary point and finds the best setting inside your design region. The data never leave your browser.

Your data, the same model

quadratic RSM · runs locally
Paste data and press Analyse.

Note. Coding is x = (value − centre)/step with centre = (min + max)/2 and step = (max − min)/(2α) for each factor, so the design needs its axial runs present and α set correctly. The map covers the circle through your outermost runs (a rotatable design’s region); outside it the model is extrapolating. With fewer than 7 runs there is no error estimate, and a model this size needs the usual care: replicate the centre point, and confirm any optimum with fresh runs.

7.12 How stable is the model? Leave-one-out and bootstrap

Method. Thirteen runs support six parameters, so a single odd run can move the fit. Two checks are computed live. Leave-one-out: each run is removed in turn and the model refitted, reporting R², predicted R², the prediction at the peak corner (8 g, 12 d) and the stationary point. Residual bootstrap: residuals are rescaled by 1/√(1−hii), resampled with replacement, added to the fitted values and the model refitted B times with a seeded generator. The spread of the refitted predictions gives a distribution-free interval to compare with the textbook t interval, and the refits show how often the saddle and the high-substrate, long-time optimum survive.

Stability of the fitted surface

leave-one-out · residual bootstrap

Bootstrap distribution of the prediction at 8 g, 12 d

Figure 8. Left, bootstrap predictions at 8 g and 12 d; the shaded band is the 95% percentile interval and the dashed lines are the analytical 95% confidence interval for the mean from the t distribution. Right, leave-one-out refits: the row removed, the resulting R² and predicted R², the prediction at the peak corner and the stationary point. Removing one of the five identical centre runs changes little because the others carry the same information. The bootstrap assumes the residuals are exchangeable, which is least secure with only seven error degrees of freedom, so treat the interval as a robustness check on the t interval and not as a replacement for it.

Section 8 · Saccharification

Turning waste into fermentable sugar

The crude enzyme from the optimized fermentation was applied to the agricultural wastes themselves. Every substrate was hydrolyzed, and pea peels gave the highest reducing-sugar yield. Pea peels were then taken into a second, three-factor central composite design with pea peel weight, volume of culture filtrate and incubation time as factors.

Reducing sugar released, as reported

mg/mL
0100200300400 Pea peels (PP)Lemon peels (LP)Onion peels (OP)Pea peels, optimized 98.3383.1474.15338.18

Unoptimized hydrolysis of three substrates and the best run of the pea peel CCD (3.44-fold). Values as printed in the report and in [1].

The reported model

The published first-order model, in coded units, is the equation below. Its coefficients show which factor moves the response most per coded step.

(10)ŷ = 151.79 + 50.21A − 92.65B − 24.55C

A pea peel weight, B culture filtrate volume, C incubation time. Taken from [1].

Fit statistics, as reported
StatisticValue
Model F-value79.79 (p < 0.0001)
Filtrate volume, F-value175.49 (p < 0.0001)
R²0.9373
Adjusted R²0.9256
Predicted R²0.8840
Adjusted − predicted0.0416 (< 0.2, in agreement)

Coefficients (coded units)

−930+93 +50.21A weight −92.65B filtrate −24.55C time

B is filtrate volume. Bars are drawn to one scale, so the length of each bar is its effect per coded unit.

Coded-unit calculator

Filtrate volume (B) dominates, and its coefficient is negative: within the range tested, adding more culture filtrate lowered the reported sugar concentration. Because the response is a concentration, dilution of the reaction mixture is one plausible contributor, alongside product inhibition and the enzyme-to-substrate ratio. The reported data cannot separate these explanations, and section 11 lists the experiments that would.

Section 9 · Textile applications

The same enzyme, a second market

Cellulases are used in textile finishing because they act on cotton's surface cellulose under mild conditions. The crude A. awamori enzyme was tested in three operations on cotton twill and satin: biopolishing, desizing and dyeing or printing.

Biopolishing

Removes protruding microfibrils that cause fuzz and pilling. Treated fabrics showed a smoother surface, a higher whiteness index and better dye and pigment uptake.

Desizing

Removes starch size before dyeing. Desized fabric lost 5.2% of its weight, had high wettability, and SEM showed no residual starch particles.

Dyeing and printing

Enzyme-treated fabric took up more colour, with K/S 2.87 for dyed and 1.25 for printed samples. Washing and perspiration fastness were good to very good, and light fastness very good to excellent.

Treatment conditions reported in the source study
OperationConditionsReported outcome
BiopolishingAcetate buffer, pH 6.0, liquor ratio 1:50, cellulase 20 mL/L, 50 °C, 45 min, ultrasonic bathSmoother fibres, improved whiteness and dye uptake
DesizingEnzyme 30 mL/L, NaClO2 5 g/L, wetting agent 1 g/L, liquor ratio 1:30, 60 °C, 30 min5.2% weight loss, whiteness 61, starch removed
Four scanning electron micrographs of cotton fibres labelled A to D
Figure 4. Scanning electron micrographs of cotton fabric. (A) untreated twill, (B) enzyme-treated twill, (C) untreated satin, (D) enzyme-treated satin. Treated fibres appear smoother. Adapted from [1].

Quantifying colour with K/S

Colour strength is measured from reflectance with the Kubelka–Munk function, which is proportional to the dye concentration in the fabric [18]. A higher K/S at the same dye bath means more dye was taken up, which is why K/S is the headline metric for dyeability.

(11)K/S = (1 − R∞)2 / (2R∞)

R∞ is the reflectance of an opaque sample at the wavelength of maximum absorption.

Section 10 · Poster and modelling toolkit

Five statistical models, one poster

The project poster surveys five modelling approaches used in design of experiments, each shown with outputs from statistical software. They go beyond the polynomial response surface used in section 7 and cover binary responses, batch effects, non-polynomial surfaces and time-to-event data. Select the poster to enlarge it.

Project poster on design of experiments showing five panels: logistic regression, RSM with random blocks, Gaussian process models, Weibull regression and response surface design Enlarge poster

The panels are software outputs from the project's worked examples. They illustrate each method and are separate from the cellulase dataset analysed in sections 6 and 7.

Poster panel 1: logistic regression diagnostics
Poster panel 1. Multi-view diagnostics of a logistic fit.
1 · Logistic regressionBinary responseMaximum likelihood

Modelling pass or fail

When the response is binary (growth or no growth, specification met or missed), a linear model can predict impossible probabilities. Logistic regression models the log-odds as linear in the factors and is fitted by maximum likelihood.

(12)ln [ p / (1 − p) ] = β0 + β1x1 + … + βkxk

Factor significance comes from likelihood-ratio χ² tests. Because ordinary R² does not exist, fit is summarized by a pseudo-R², commonly McFadden's, 1 − ln Lmodel / ln Lnull; values of 0.2 to 0.4 are conventionally read as a very good fit [15,16]. The poster pairs the significant p-values with decent pseudo-R² values, then checks residuals against predicted values, Cook's distance by run order against a threshold line [22], and actual against predicted.

In a bioprocess study. Contamination outcomes, spore germination, or whether a hydrolysis run exceeds a target yield.

Poster panel 2: ANOVA and fit statistics for a response surface model with random blocks
Poster panel 2. Quadratic ANOVA with a block term, fit statistics and coefficients.
2 · RSM with random blocksMixed modelREML

When runs come in batches

Experiments are often split into blocks such as days, operators or inoculum batches. Treating blocks as random effects assumes the batches in the study are a sample from a wider population of batches.

(13)y = Xβ + Zγ + ε,   γ ~ N(0, σb2I),   ε ~ N(0, σ2I)

The poster states the practical advantages: predictions can be made at block levels not included in the experiment, only one variance component has to be estimated instead of one coefficient per extra block, and estimates for the factors of interest become more precise [17]. Variance components are estimated by restricted maximum likelihood (REML), which also recovers information between blocks when the blocks are incomplete.

In a bioprocess study. Flask-to-flask and batch-to-batch variation in inoculum or substrate lot, separated from the factor effects.

Poster panel 3: Gaussian process surface plot and four contour plots
Poster panel 3. Surface plot for optimization and contour plots for analysis of several responses.
3 · Gaussian process modelsNon-parametricSpace-filling designs

Letting the data draw the surface

A Gaussian process places a prior directly on the unknown response function instead of assuming a polynomial. A kernel states that nearby settings should give similar responses, and the posterior mean passes through, or close to, the observed points [12,13].

(14)k(x, x′) = σf2 exp[ − Σj θj(xj − x′j)2 ] + σn2δ
(15)ŷ(x) = μ + k(x)TK−1(y − μ1)   s2(x) = σf2 − k(x)TK−1k(x)

Each θj acts as a sensitivity: a large value means the response changes quickly along that factor. The prediction variance gives uncertainty bands, which makes the method natural for sequential optimization. The poster's example shows several responses over two factors, with a desirability function [20] combining them, a surface plot for optimization and contour plots for analysis.

In a bioprocess study. A check on whether the saddle shape in section 7 is real or an artefact of forcing a quadratic form onto 13 points.

Poster panel 4: Weibull regression interaction and standard graphs
Poster panel 4. Interaction graph and standard graph from a Weibull model.
4 · Weibull regressionTime-to-eventCensoring

Modelling how long things take

For responses such as time to failure, time to germination or time to reach a threshold, a Weibull model describes the survival function and the hazard rate, and factors act on the scale parameter [14,23].

(16)S(t) = exp[ −(t/η)β ]   h(t) = (β/η)(t/η)β−1   ln η = xTγ

The shape β reads directly as a mechanism. With β < 1 the hazard falls with time (early failures), β = 1 gives a constant hazard (the exponential case), and β > 1 gives a rising hazard (wear-out). Runs that have not finished when observation stops are right-censored, and the likelihood uses them correctly instead of discarding them.

In a bioprocess study. Time for hydrolysis to reach a target conversion, or time to first visible sporulation, with unfinished flasks kept as censored data.

Poster panel 5: response surface design conversion graph and model graph
Poster panel 5. Three-dimensional conversion graph and contour model graph.
5 · Response surface designQuadratic modelCCD · Box–Behnken

The workhorse of process optimization

Response surface design fits a second-order polynomial to a purpose-built design, a central composite or a Box–Behnken design [3,4,21], and searches the fitted surface for an optimum. The poster shows reaction conversion against two continuous factors as a three-dimensional graph and a contour map with design points overlaid.

This is the method that produced the cellulase surface in section 7. Its limits are the ones listed there: the polynomial form is an approximation valid only near the explored region, and the stationary point can be a saddle rather than an optimum.

In a bioprocess study. Both CCD stages of the cellulase project.

Choosing among the five methods
MethodResponse typeKey outputMain assumption
Logistic regressionBinary or proportionOdds ratios, pseudo-R²Log-odds linear in factors
RSM with random blocksContinuous, grouped runsFixed effects, variance componentsBlocks are a random sample
Gaussian processContinuous, smoothSurface with uncertaintySmoothness set by the kernel
Weibull regressionTime to event, censoredShape β, acceleration factorsWeibull-distributed event times
Response surface (CCD)ContinuousQuadratic surface, optimumSecond-order approximation

Section 11 · Critical appraisal

What the data support, and what they do not

The study is a clean example of sequential experimental design, and its model statistics are strong. Reading the design tables closely also shows several points that limit how far the conclusions can be pushed.

Strengths

  • An orthogonal screen and a rotatable CCD were matched to the question at each stage.
  • The CCD model is well supported: R² 0.9878, adjusted 0.9792 and predicted 0.9136 agree closely, and the coefficient of variation is 2.2%.
  • The model exposes a large interaction that one-factor-at-a-time work would have missed.
  • The enzyme was tested in two independent applications, which shows the process output is useful beyond a titre number.

Where to be careful

  • No separate confirmation run is described, so predicted R² is a leave-one-out measure, not external validation.
  • Only one strain, one substrate and 2 g flasks were studied.
  • Only CMCase activity was reported, with no filter-paper activity or β-glucosidase assay.
  • The saccharification model in [1] is first order, so curvature in that system is untested.

Findings from re-analysing the design tables

1. The best condition sits on the edge of the design

The highest response (9.00 U/mL at 8 g and 12 days) is a corner of the factorial square, so the true optimum may lie beyond it. The model's predicted maximum inside the design region is also on its boundary (section 7.3). A short run of steepest-ascent experiments past that corner, followed by a smaller second CCD, is the standard next step [3].

2. The surface is a saddle, which opens a cheaper operating point

Because the stationary point is a saddle, there are two good regions rather than one. The table compares them using values from the design.

Two high-yield regions from the CCD (observed responses)
ConditionSubstrateTimeCellulase (U/mL)Per day (U/mL/d)Per gram (U/mL/g)
High-high corner (run 10)8 g12 d9.000.751.13
Low-low corner (run 8)4 g7 d7.851.121.96

The low-low corner gives 87% of the peak titre in 58% of the time with half the substrate. Which is better depends on whether titre, throughput or raw-material cost is the objective, and a desirability function [20] is the tool for stating that trade-off formally.

3. Replicated centre points have zero variance

All five centre-point runs are tabulated at 6.85 U/mL, so the pure-error sum of squares is exactly zero and the lack-of-fit F-test cannot be formed. Either the replicates agreed to two decimals or the tabulated values are means. Reporting the individual replicate readings would restore a model-free estimate of experimental noise.

4. Selection inflates the screening p-values

In the Plackett–Burman analysis, terms were retained after inspecting the data and the residual then used for testing has only 4 degrees of freedom. The reduced-model p-values are therefore optimistic, which is why the Bonferroni limit, not the p-value, is the safer yardstick for the screen.

5. The unit basis of the saccharification response

A reducing-sugar value of 338.18 mg/mL is high for a hydrolysate, and many studies express yield per gram of substrate. When this result is reused, the basis of the calculation (per mL of reaction mixture, filtrate or substrate) should be stated, and it determines how the negative filtrate coefficient is interpreted.

Next experiments

  1. Confirmation runs at the predicted optimum and at the low-low alternative, in triplicate, to give an external check on the model.
  2. Steepest ascent from the high-high corner, then a second CCD or a Box–Behnken design [21] centred on the new region.
  3. A multi-response desirability optimization over titre, time and substrate use.
  4. Block terms for inoculum batch and substrate lot, analysed as random effects (section 10).
  5. A Gaussian-process fit to the 13 CCD points to test whether the saddle survives a non-polynomial model.
  6. Saccharification with filtrate dosed per gram of substrate, separating dilution from enzyme loading and from product inhibition.
  7. Scale-up in tray or packed-bed bioreactors, where heat removal becomes the limiting variable, and a cost per unit of enzyme.

Section 12 · Reproducibility

Reported versus recomputed

Every number in the interactive panels is computed in your browser by ordinary least squares from the design tables printed in [1]. The table compares those results with the values published in the source article and in the project report. Small differences in the CCD come from the published responses being rounded to two decimals.

Verification of the recomputation
QuantityPublishedRecomputed hereDifference

The CCD coefficients recomputed here reproduce the published equation ŷ = 6.85 + 0.81A − 0.40B + 1.34AB + 0.11A² + 0.21B² to two decimals.

Software and conventions

  • Linear models are fitted with the normal equations solved by Gauss–Jordan elimination. p-values use the regularized incomplete beta function for the F and t distributions.
  • Predicted R² uses leave-one-out PRESS residuals from the hat matrix. Studentized residuals are internally studentized.
  • The Pareto limits use the t quantile at the error degrees of freedom of the selected model, with α = 0.05 and a Bonferroni divisor of 11.
  • The 3-D surface is drawn on a 28 × 28 mesh with painter's-algorithm shading. The contour map uses marching squares on a 60 × 60 grid.

Section 13 · Glossary

Terms and abbreviations

ANOVA
Analysis of variance, partitioning total variation into model and residual parts.
CCD
Central composite design: factorial, axial and centre points for fitting quadratic models.
CMCase
Carboxymethyl-cellulase, the endoglucanase activity measured on CMC.
CV
Coefficient of variation, root mean square error as a percentage of the mean response.
DOE
Design of experiments, planning runs so effects can be estimated efficiently.
GP
Gaussian process, a probabilistic model over functions defined by a kernel.
K/S
Kubelka–Munk colour strength, proportional to dye concentration in fabric.
Leverage
Diagonal of the hat matrix, how far a run's settings lie from the centre of the design.
MS / PP
Molokhia stem and pea peel, the fermentation and saccharification substrates.
OFAT
One factor at a time, the approach that designed experiments replace.
PBD
Plackett–Burman design, a two-level screening design.
PRESS
Predicted residual error sum of squares, from leave-one-out residuals.
REML
Restricted maximum likelihood, the standard way to estimate variance components.
RSM
Response surface methodology, fitting and exploring a fitted polynomial surface.
Rotatable
A design whose prediction variance depends only on distance from the centre.
SSF
Solid-state fermentation, microbial growth on a moist solid with little free water.

Section 14 · References

References

  1. Aspergillus awamori MK788209 cellulase: production, statistical optimization, pea peels saccharification and textile applications. Microbial Cell Factories 23:11 (2024). Open access. doi:10.1186/s12934-023-02286-w
  2. Plackett RL, Burman JP (1946) The design of optimum multifactorial experiments. Biometrika 33:305–325.
  3. Box GEP, Wilson KB (1951) On the experimental attainment of optimum conditions. J R Stat Soc B 13:1–45.
  4. Box GEP, Hunter JS (1957) Multi-factor experimental designs for exploring response surfaces. Ann Math Stat 28:195–241.
  5. Myers RH, Montgomery DC, Anderson-Cook CM (2016) Response Surface Methodology, 4th ed. Wiley.
  6. Montgomery DC (2017) Design and Analysis of Experiments, 9th ed. Wiley.
  7. Ghose TK (1987) Measurement of cellulase activities. Pure Appl Chem 59:257–268.
  8. Somogyi M (1952) Notes on sugar determination. J Biol Chem 195:19–23.
  9. Nelson N (1944) A photometric adaptation of the Somogyi method for the determination of glucose. J Biol Chem 153:375–380.
  10. Lynd LR, Weimer PJ, van Zyl WH, Pretorius IS (2002) Microbial cellulose utilization: fundamentals and biotechnology. Microbiol Mol Biol Rev 66:506–577.
  11. Pandey A (2003) Solid-state fermentation. Biochem Eng J 13:81–84.
  12. Sacks J, Welch WJ, Mitchell TJ, Wynn HP (1989) Design and analysis of computer experiments. Stat Sci 4:409–423.
  13. Rasmussen CE, Williams CKI (2006) Gaussian Processes for Machine Learning. MIT Press.
  14. Weibull W (1951) A statistical distribution function of wide applicability. J Appl Mech 18:293–297.
  15. Hosmer DW, Lemeshow S, Sturdivant RX (2013) Applied Logistic Regression, 3rd ed. Wiley.
  16. McFadden D (1974) Conditional logit analysis of qualitative choice behavior. In: Zarembka P (ed) Frontiers in Econometrics. Academic Press, 105–142.
  17. Pinheiro JC, Bates DM (2000) Mixed-Effects Models in S and S-PLUS. Springer.
  18. Kubelka P, Munk F (1931) Ein Beitrag zur Optik der Farbanstriche. Z Tech Phys 12:593–601.
  19. Lenth RV (1989) Quick and easy analysis of unreplicated factorials. Technometrics 31:469–473.
  20. Derringer G, Suich R (1980) Simultaneous optimization of several response variables. J Qual Technol 12:214–219.
  21. Box GEP, Behnken DW (1960) Some new three level designs for the study of quantitative variables. Technometrics 2:455–475.
  22. Cook RD (1977) Detection of influential observation in linear regression. Technometrics 19:15–18.
  23. Meeker WQ, Escobar LA (1998) Statistical Methods for Reliability Data. Wiley.
  24. Marler RT, Arora JS (2004) Survey of multi-objective optimization methods for engineering. Struct Multidisc Optim 26:369–395.
  25. Morris TP, White IR, Crowther MJ (2019) Using simulation studies to evaluate statistical methods. Stat Med 38:2074–2102.

Section 15 · Code and contact

Reproduce everything

All code, data tables and figures are open. The static page you are reading, the Streamlit tool, and the executable notebook share the same published design tables.

Contact

harshinisuresha7@gmail.com Open in mail app